Fact vs. NITC Fiction: Traffic Across Border DECLINES

ACTUAL Truck Traffic January ’06 – June ’12; Source: PBOA (Figure 1)

Facts are a pesky thing – they don’t lie. Take this chart showing monthly truck traffic across the Michigan border from 2006 to the present, plotted from data of the Public Border Operators Association (PBOA), formerly the Bridge and Tunnel Operators Association. You can clearly see that traffic has actually declined by 3.5% (see Figure 1).

Some politicians have a hard time with the facts. For example, Lt. Governor Brian Calley has been making the case that the increasingly unmanageable volume of traffic at existing international crossings demands construction of a new bridge to Canada.

In a June 27 presentation to the Michigan Strategic Fund, Calley shared a slide (see Figure 2 below) supposedly showing that truck traffic has grown 12% annually since 2009. (The ‘Build the DRIC Now’ Twitter feed, @buildtheNITC, exaggerated even more claiming 21% growth.) Though Calley’s chart does not identify the source of the figures, his chart bears an obvious resemblance to a chart plotted using PBOA data.

The problem? When you calculate growth based on PBOA’s actual figures (see Table 1), the number is significantly lower – 7.6% (see Figure 3).

CALLEY’S CLAIM (Figure 2)                                                              PBOA ACTUAL (Figure 3)

Source: Calley Presentation to Michigan Strategic Fund; June 27, 2012

Calley vs. PBOA (Table 1)

Calley’s 12% statistic overstates traffic over the period of January 2009 through March of 2012 by more than 750,000 vehicles (see Table 1).

But even more troubling is Calley’s decision to use 2009 (the worst of the recession, when traffic hit its lowest levels in years) as a baseline to determine growth. A more reasonable and honest assessment would be to look at traffic patterns over the last decade. And, according to the PBOA , traffic has actually decreased between Detroit and Windsor by 49.9% since 1999. This includes traffic on the Ambassador Bridge and the Detroit-Windsor Tunnel.

From bypassing the State Legislature to stretching the truth, Governor Snyder and Lt. Governor Calley have proven that they are willing to do anything it takes to get their bridge built. But Michiganders deserve better than half-truths and empty promises. We deserve a voice. Join the effort to Let the People Decide, today.